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Türkiye’de 2030 Yılına Kadar Bina Sektöründeki Enerji Tüketim Tahmini

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 175 - 181, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.46460/ijiea.1352958

Öz

Dünya genelinde olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de nüfus artışı ve teknolojik gelişmelerin sonucu olarak enerji tüketimi artmaktadır. Enerji ihtiyacının yarısından fazlasını ithal kaynaklardan karşılayan Türkiye için enerji verimliliği çalışmaları her geçen gün daha önemli hale gelmektedir. Enerjinin yoğun olarak tüketildiği sektörler incelendiğinde bina sektörü enerji tüketiminin, toplam enerji tüketimi içerisinde payının yaklaşık olarak 20% gibi bir orana sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Bu yüksek oran bina sektörde enerji verimliliği çalışmaları sayesinde enerji ithalat miktarını ve cari açığı azaltacağını aynı zamanda arz güvenliğini sağlamaya yardımcı olacağını göstermektedir.
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin geçmiş 20 yıldaki nüfus, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hâsıla (GSYH), bina sayısı ve binalarda tüketilen toplam enerji miktarı verilerinden yararlanılarak geleceğe yönelik bina sektöründe ne kadar enerji tüketileceği tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında, Türkiye’nin 2030 yılına kadar bina sektöründe ne kadar enerji tüketeceği Matlab programında Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) metoduyla tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan tahminde Türkiye’nin 2030 yılında bina sektöründe 37.868 Bin Ton Eşdeğeri Petrol (TEP) enerji tüketeceği hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca, bina sektöründe enerji verimliliği çalışmalarının önemi vurgulanmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Yaşar, N. (2011). The Perception of Energy Efficiency in Housing in the Context of Urban Energy Policies: Isparta Case. (Master’s Dissertation, Süleyman Demirel University).
  • İçme E.N., & Yılankırkan N. (2022, June). The Importance of Energy Efficiency in Buildings in Turkey", International Korkut Ata Scientific Research Conference/Osmaniye, (pp.560-561).
  • Önal, S. (2014). Evaluations on Energy Performance Certificates of Buildings. European Journal of Science and Technology, 1(3),(pp.100-105)
  • National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2017-2023. (2018). Official Gazette, Issue, 30289, (pp.1-3).
  • Kurt, M. (2012). Comparison of Turkey and Germany Building Energy Performance Regulations in terms of Reference Building and Boundary Conditions. (Master’s Dissertation, Istanbul Technical University)
  • Yiğit, K. (2013). Energy Identity Certificate Application in Houses with Bep-Tr Software and Determination of Saving Potential of Energy Consumed for Lighting. (Yıldız Technical University).
  • Ertosun Yıldız, M., Beyhan F., & Uçar, M. K. (2021, October). Prediction of Heating- Cooling Load By Artificial Neural Networks for Energy Efficient Building Design. 9th International Symposium on Innovative Technologies in Engineering and Science/Sakarya, (pp, 91-100).
  • Canbay, P., & Taş, H. (2022). Prediction of Heating and Cooling Loads of Buildings by Artificial Intelligence. International Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, 8(2), (pp. 478-489).
  • Turhan, C., Gökçen, G., & Kazanasmaz, T. (2013), "Estimation of Total Energy Consumption of Multi-storey Buildings in Izmir with Artificial Neural Networks. Tesisat Engineering, Issue 134, (pp.61-68).
  • Şencan D., & Şencan Şahin A. (2022) Estimation of Net Energy Consumption for Turkey Based on Economic Factors. Al-Jazari Journal of Science and Engineering, 9(3), (pp.1101-1111).
  • Ekinci F., (2019). Comparison of Energy Consumption Forecasting Methods Based on ANN and ANFIS Techniques. Düzce University Journal of Science and Technology 7, (pp.1029-1044).
  • Ülkü H., & Yalpır Ş., (2021). Developing a methodology for energy demand forecasting: The case of Turkey in 2030. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir University Journal of Engineering Sciences 10(1),(pp.188-201).
  • Yılankırkan N., & Doğan H., (2020). Turkey’s Energy Outlook and Primary Energy Supply Projection for 2023”, Batman University Journal of Life Sciences, 10(2), (pp.77-92).
  • Aktaş C. B., (2019). Ulusal Enerji Tüketiminin Değerlendirmesi ve İstatistiksel Tahmini. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8 (4), (pp.1422-1431).
  • National energy balance tables (2000-2021). Retrieved 15 March, 2023, from https://enerji.gov.tr/eigm-raporlari
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, Building Permit Statistics, Retrieved 14 April, 2023, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Building-Permits-Quarter-I:-January-March,-2023-49528#:~:text=Toplam%20y%C3%BCz%C3%B6l%C3%A7%C3%BCm%C3%BCn%20%53%2C0',ortak%20kullan%C4%B1m%20alan%C4%B1%20olarak%20ger%C3%A7ekle%C5%9Fti
  • International Energy Agency, Retrieved 14 May, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/countries/turkiye
  • Çakmanus, İ. (2021). Energy Efficiency and Sustainability in Buildings, Retrieved 13 April, 2023, from https://www.mmo.org.tr/sites/default/files/users/zeynep/1.%20BIBALARDA%20SURDURULEBILIRLIK-mmo%20sunum%2013%2002%202021.pdf
  • İnternational Monetary Fund, Retrieved 29 May, 2023, from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April/weo-report?c=186,&s=NGDPD,LP,&sy=1990&ey=2027&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1
  • Uğur, A., & Kınacı, A. C. (2006, December). Classification of Web Pages Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques and Artificial Neural Networks” , inet-tr’06 - XI. “Internet in Turkey” Conference/Ankara (pp.345-349)
  • Ataseven B., (2013), “Forecasting Modeling with Artificial Neural Networks", Journal of Suggestion, 10(39), (pp.101-115).
  • Data Science School, Retrieved 30 October, 2023, from, https://www.veribilimiokulu.com/basit-dogrusal-regresyon/
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, Population by Scenarios, (2018-2080), Retrieved 12 May, 2023, from, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Nufus-Projeksiyonlari-2018-2080-30567#:~:text=N%C3%BCfusumuz%202069%20y%C4%B1l%C4%B1na%20kadar%20artarak,100%20bin%20904%20ki%C5%9Fi%20olacakt%C4%B1r

Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 175 - 181, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.46460/ijiea.1352958

Öz

As in the rest of the world, energy consumption is increasing in Turkey as a result of population growth and technological developments. Energy efficiency studies are becoming more and more important for Turkey, which meets more than half of its energy needs from imported sources. When the sectors where energy is consumed intensively are analyzed, it is seen that the share of building sector energy consumption in total energy consumption is approximately 20%. This high rate shows that energy efficiency studies in the building sector will reduce the amount of energy imports and the current account deficit, as well as help to ensure security of supply.
In this study, Turkey's population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), number of buildings and the total amount of energy consumed in buildings in the past 20 years are used to estimate how much energy will be consumed in the building sector for the future. Within the scope of the study, how much energy will be consumed in the building sector in Turkey until 2030 is estimated by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) method in Matlab program. It is calculated that Turkey will consume 37.868 thousand Tons of Oil Equivalent (TOE) of energy in the building sector in 2030. In addition, the importance of energy efficiency studies in the building sector is emphasized.

Kaynakça

  • Yaşar, N. (2011). The Perception of Energy Efficiency in Housing in the Context of Urban Energy Policies: Isparta Case. (Master’s Dissertation, Süleyman Demirel University).
  • İçme E.N., & Yılankırkan N. (2022, June). The Importance of Energy Efficiency in Buildings in Turkey", International Korkut Ata Scientific Research Conference/Osmaniye, (pp.560-561).
  • Önal, S. (2014). Evaluations on Energy Performance Certificates of Buildings. European Journal of Science and Technology, 1(3),(pp.100-105)
  • National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2017-2023. (2018). Official Gazette, Issue, 30289, (pp.1-3).
  • Kurt, M. (2012). Comparison of Turkey and Germany Building Energy Performance Regulations in terms of Reference Building and Boundary Conditions. (Master’s Dissertation, Istanbul Technical University)
  • Yiğit, K. (2013). Energy Identity Certificate Application in Houses with Bep-Tr Software and Determination of Saving Potential of Energy Consumed for Lighting. (Yıldız Technical University).
  • Ertosun Yıldız, M., Beyhan F., & Uçar, M. K. (2021, October). Prediction of Heating- Cooling Load By Artificial Neural Networks for Energy Efficient Building Design. 9th International Symposium on Innovative Technologies in Engineering and Science/Sakarya, (pp, 91-100).
  • Canbay, P., & Taş, H. (2022). Prediction of Heating and Cooling Loads of Buildings by Artificial Intelligence. International Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, 8(2), (pp. 478-489).
  • Turhan, C., Gökçen, G., & Kazanasmaz, T. (2013), "Estimation of Total Energy Consumption of Multi-storey Buildings in Izmir with Artificial Neural Networks. Tesisat Engineering, Issue 134, (pp.61-68).
  • Şencan D., & Şencan Şahin A. (2022) Estimation of Net Energy Consumption for Turkey Based on Economic Factors. Al-Jazari Journal of Science and Engineering, 9(3), (pp.1101-1111).
  • Ekinci F., (2019). Comparison of Energy Consumption Forecasting Methods Based on ANN and ANFIS Techniques. Düzce University Journal of Science and Technology 7, (pp.1029-1044).
  • Ülkü H., & Yalpır Ş., (2021). Developing a methodology for energy demand forecasting: The case of Turkey in 2030. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir University Journal of Engineering Sciences 10(1),(pp.188-201).
  • Yılankırkan N., & Doğan H., (2020). Turkey’s Energy Outlook and Primary Energy Supply Projection for 2023”, Batman University Journal of Life Sciences, 10(2), (pp.77-92).
  • Aktaş C. B., (2019). Ulusal Enerji Tüketiminin Değerlendirmesi ve İstatistiksel Tahmini. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8 (4), (pp.1422-1431).
  • National energy balance tables (2000-2021). Retrieved 15 March, 2023, from https://enerji.gov.tr/eigm-raporlari
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, Building Permit Statistics, Retrieved 14 April, 2023, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Building-Permits-Quarter-I:-January-March,-2023-49528#:~:text=Toplam%20y%C3%BCz%C3%B6l%C3%A7%C3%BCm%C3%BCn%20%53%2C0',ortak%20kullan%C4%B1m%20alan%C4%B1%20olarak%20ger%C3%A7ekle%C5%9Fti
  • International Energy Agency, Retrieved 14 May, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/countries/turkiye
  • Çakmanus, İ. (2021). Energy Efficiency and Sustainability in Buildings, Retrieved 13 April, 2023, from https://www.mmo.org.tr/sites/default/files/users/zeynep/1.%20BIBALARDA%20SURDURULEBILIRLIK-mmo%20sunum%2013%2002%202021.pdf
  • İnternational Monetary Fund, Retrieved 29 May, 2023, from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April/weo-report?c=186,&s=NGDPD,LP,&sy=1990&ey=2027&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1
  • Uğur, A., & Kınacı, A. C. (2006, December). Classification of Web Pages Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques and Artificial Neural Networks” , inet-tr’06 - XI. “Internet in Turkey” Conference/Ankara (pp.345-349)
  • Ataseven B., (2013), “Forecasting Modeling with Artificial Neural Networks", Journal of Suggestion, 10(39), (pp.101-115).
  • Data Science School, Retrieved 30 October, 2023, from, https://www.veribilimiokulu.com/basit-dogrusal-regresyon/
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, Population by Scenarios, (2018-2080), Retrieved 12 May, 2023, from, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Nufus-Projeksiyonlari-2018-2080-30567#:~:text=N%C3%BCfusumuz%202069%20y%C4%B1l%C4%B1na%20kadar%20artarak,100%20bin%20904%20ki%C5%9Fi%20olacakt%C4%B1r
Toplam 23 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Enerji Sistemleri Mühendisliği (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Nazile Yılankırkan 0000-0002-8274-186X

Esra Nur İçme 0000-0002-3350-6222

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Aralık 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 31 Ağustos 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Yılankırkan, N., & İçme, E. N. (2023). Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications, 7(2), 175-181. https://doi.org/10.46460/ijiea.1352958
AMA Yılankırkan N, İçme EN. Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030. ijiea, IJIEA. Aralık 2023;7(2):175-181. doi:10.46460/ijiea.1352958
Chicago Yılankırkan, Nazile, ve Esra Nur İçme. “Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030”. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications 7, sy. 2 (Aralık 2023): 175-81. https://doi.org/10.46460/ijiea.1352958.
EndNote Yılankırkan N, İçme EN (01 Aralık 2023) Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications 7 2 175–181.
IEEE N. Yılankırkan ve E. N. İçme, “Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030”, ijiea, IJIEA, c. 7, sy. 2, ss. 175–181, 2023, doi: 10.46460/ijiea.1352958.
ISNAD Yılankırkan, Nazile - İçme, Esra Nur. “Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030”. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications 7/2 (Aralık 2023), 175-181. https://doi.org/10.46460/ijiea.1352958.
JAMA Yılankırkan N, İçme EN. Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030. ijiea, IJIEA. 2023;7:175–181.
MLA Yılankırkan, Nazile ve Esra Nur İçme. “Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030”. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications, c. 7, sy. 2, 2023, ss. 175-81, doi:10.46460/ijiea.1352958.
Vancouver Yılankırkan N, İçme EN. Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030. ijiea, IJIEA. 2023;7(2):175-81.