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Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 151 - 163, 30.06.2023

Abstract

Bir baraj havzası yönetiminde yağış ve akım parametreleri ile kuraklık değerlendirilmesi önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu parametrelerdeki
değişimlerin tespit edilmesi gelecekle ilgili su kaynaklarının planlamasına katkıda bulunacaktır. Bu çalışmada Konya Kapalı Havzası
sınırları içerisinde bulunan Apa Barajı havzasına ait yağış ve akım verilerinin ve bu verilere bağlı elde edilen iki adet kuraklık indisinin
(Normalleştirilmiş Yağış İndisi (NYİ) ve Akım Kuraklık İndisi (AKİ)) trend analizi yapılmıştır. Kuraklık indislerinde 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık
yağış toplamlarına karşılık gelen indisler kullanılmıştır. Trend analizinde parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho
ve Yenilikçi Şen Trend Yöntemi (YŞTY) kullanılarak istatistiksel anlamda verilerde değişim olup olmadığı ve değişim trendinin hangi
yönde olduğu araştırılmıştır.
Trend analizinden elde edilen sonuçlar değerlendirildiğinde YŞTY’den edilen bulgularda tüm verilerde (yağış, akım, NYİ ve AKİ)
artan trendlerin, MK’den elde edilen bulgularda NYİ6, NYİ9 ve NYİ12’de (α=0.01 anlamlılık seviyesinde) artan trend, NYİ3 ve
AKİ12’de (α=0.10 α=0.05 anlamlılık seviyesinde sırasıyla) artan trend bulunmuş diğer verilerde trend anlamlı bulunmamıştır.
Spearman’s Rho testinde ise NYİ6, NYİ9 ve NYİ12’de (α=0.01 anlamlılık seviyesinde) artan trend bulunmuş, diğer verilerde trend
anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Yağış ve akım verilerinde; MK ve Spearman’s Rho testlerinde trend tespit edilemezken, YŞTY’de bütün
verilerde artan trendin meydana geldiği belirlenmiştir.

Supporting Institution

Aksaray Üniversitesi

Project Number

2022-010

Thanks

Bu çalışma gerçekleşmesinde, katkıda bulunan Aksaray Üniversitesi BAP Koordinasyon Birimine teşekkür ederiz.

References

  • Aktürk, G., Yildiz, O. (2014). Drought analysis for different time periods in the city of Kırıkkale (Turkey). International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, 6, 1-7.
  • Bhunia, P., Das, P., Maiti, R. (2020). Meteorological Drought Study Through SPI in Three Drought Prone Districts of West Bengal, India. Earth Systems and Environment, 4(1), 43-55. doi:10.1007/s41748-019-00137-6
  • Dogan, S., Berktay, A., ve Singh, V. P. (2012). Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 470-471, 255-268. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jhydrol.2012.09.003
  • Dracup, J. A., Lee, K. S., Paulson, E. G. (1980). On the Definition of Droughts. Water Resources Research, 16(2), 297-302. doi:DOI 10.1029/WR016i002p00297
  • Edwards, D.C. (1997). Characterıstıcs of 20th century drought in the Unıted States at multiple time scales. Master thesis, Colorado State University, 155 pages.
  • Gumus, V. (2019). Spatio-temporal precipitation and temperature trend analysis of the Seyhan–Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 26(3), 369-384. doi:https://doi. org/10.1002/met.1768
  • Gumus, V., Simsek, O., Avsaroglu, Y., Agun, B. (2021). Spatiotemporal trend analysis of drought in the GAP Region, Turkey. Natural Hazards, 109(2), 1759-1776. doi:10.1007/ s11069-021-04897-1
  • Guttman, N. B. (1999). Accepting the standardized precipitation index: A calculation algorithm. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(2), 311-322. doi:DOI 10.1111/ j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x
  • Heim, R. (2002). A Review of Twentieth‒Century Drought Indices Used in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83. doi:10.1175/1520- 0477(2002)083<1149:AROTDI>2.3.CO;2
  • Hinis, M. A. (2013). Hydrometeorological Drought Analysis in Aksaray by Aggregate Drought Index. Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 28(4), 711- 721. Retrieved from <Go to ISI>://WOS:000330041500005
  • Katipoglu, M. O., Yesilyurt, N. S., Dalkılıç, Y. H. (2022). Yeşilırmak havzasındaki hidrolojik kuraklıkların Mann- Kendall ve Yenilikçi Şen yöntemi ile trend analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(2), 422-442. Doi:10.17714/gumusfenbil.1026893
  • Kendall, M. G. (1948). Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London, England.
  • Lehmann, E. (1975). Nonparametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Inc, California: Holden -Day.
  • Li, J., Wang, Z., Wu, X., Zscheischler, J., Guo, S., Chen, X. (2021). A standardized index for assessing sub-monthly compound dry and hot conditions with application in China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, 1587-1601. doi:10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021
  • Mann, H. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica.
  • McKee, T. B., Dosken, N. J., Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Paper presented at the Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California.
  • Mert, R., Bulut, S., Solak, K. (2008). Apa Baraj Gölü’nün (Konya) Bazı Fiziksel ve Kimyasal Özelliklerinin Araştırılması. AKÜ Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(2), 1-10.
  • Mishra, A.K., Singh, V.P., (2009). Analysis of drought severityarea- frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D06120. doi:10.1029/2008JD010986.
  • Nalbantis, I. (2008). Evaluation of a Hydrological Drought Index. Eur Water, 23.
  • Naz, F., Dars, G. H., Ansari, K., Jamro, S., Krakauer, N. Y. (2020). Drought Trends in Balochistan. Water, 12(2), 470. Retrieved from https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/2/470
  • Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought. Paper presented at the US Department of Commerce.
  • Sen, Z. (2012). Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046. doi:10.1061/ (Asce)He.1943-5584.0000556
  • Sen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127(3-4), 939-947. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x
  • Sharafati, A., Nabaei, S., Shahid, S. (2019). Spatial assessment of meteorological drought features over different climate regions in Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 40. doi:10.1002/ joc.6307
  • Sneyers, R. (1990). “On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. World Meteorological Organization, 145, World Meteorological Organization.
  • Thom, H. C. S. (1966) Some Methods of Climatological Analysis. WMO Technical Note Number 81, Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 53 pp.
  • Tuğrul, T., Dogan, S., Dursun, S. (2019). Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesindeki İllerin Kuraklık Analizi. Konya Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(4), 705-712.
  • White, D. H., Walcott, J. J. (2009). The role of seasonal indices in monitoring and assessing agricultural and other droughts: a review. Crop & Pasture Science, 60(7), 599-616. doi:10.1071/ Cp08378
  • Williams, A., Cook, E., Smerdon, J., Cook, B., Abatzoglou, J., Bolles, K., Livneh, B. (2020). Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought. Science, 368, 314-318. doi:10.1126/science. aaz9600
  • WMO (2016). World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2016: Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices (M. Svoboda and B.A. Fuchs). Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), Integrated Drought Management Tools and Guidelines Series 2. Geneva.

Trend Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought at Apa Dam (Konya) Basin

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 151 - 163, 30.06.2023

Abstract

Evaluation of precipitation and flow parameters and drought are essential in the management of a dam basin. Determining the changes
in these parameters will contribute to the planning for the future of water resources. In this study, trend analysis of precipitation and
flow data of the Apa Dam basin located in the boundaries of Konya Closed Basin and two drought indices namely Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), obtained based on these data were performed. In the drought indices,
indices for the corresponding to the precipitation totals of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were used. In trend analysis, non-parametric Mann-
Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s Rho test and Innovative Trend Methods (ITA) were used to investigate whether there was a statistical
change in the data and in which direction the change trend was.
The results of trend analysis revealed that there is an increasing trend in all data in the findings obtained from ITA and increasing
trend in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α=0.01 significance level in the findings obtained from MK and increasing trend in SPI3 and SDI
12 in α=0.10 α=0.05 significance level respectively, but the trend was not statistically significant in other data. In Spearman’s Rho test,
on the other hand, an increasing trend was found in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α=0.01 significance level. However, the trend was not
statistically significant in other data.

Project Number

2022-010

References

  • Aktürk, G., Yildiz, O. (2014). Drought analysis for different time periods in the city of Kırıkkale (Turkey). International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, 6, 1-7.
  • Bhunia, P., Das, P., Maiti, R. (2020). Meteorological Drought Study Through SPI in Three Drought Prone Districts of West Bengal, India. Earth Systems and Environment, 4(1), 43-55. doi:10.1007/s41748-019-00137-6
  • Dogan, S., Berktay, A., ve Singh, V. P. (2012). Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 470-471, 255-268. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jhydrol.2012.09.003
  • Dracup, J. A., Lee, K. S., Paulson, E. G. (1980). On the Definition of Droughts. Water Resources Research, 16(2), 297-302. doi:DOI 10.1029/WR016i002p00297
  • Edwards, D.C. (1997). Characterıstıcs of 20th century drought in the Unıted States at multiple time scales. Master thesis, Colorado State University, 155 pages.
  • Gumus, V. (2019). Spatio-temporal precipitation and temperature trend analysis of the Seyhan–Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 26(3), 369-384. doi:https://doi. org/10.1002/met.1768
  • Gumus, V., Simsek, O., Avsaroglu, Y., Agun, B. (2021). Spatiotemporal trend analysis of drought in the GAP Region, Turkey. Natural Hazards, 109(2), 1759-1776. doi:10.1007/ s11069-021-04897-1
  • Guttman, N. B. (1999). Accepting the standardized precipitation index: A calculation algorithm. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(2), 311-322. doi:DOI 10.1111/ j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x
  • Heim, R. (2002). A Review of Twentieth‒Century Drought Indices Used in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83. doi:10.1175/1520- 0477(2002)083<1149:AROTDI>2.3.CO;2
  • Hinis, M. A. (2013). Hydrometeorological Drought Analysis in Aksaray by Aggregate Drought Index. Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 28(4), 711- 721. Retrieved from <Go to ISI>://WOS:000330041500005
  • Katipoglu, M. O., Yesilyurt, N. S., Dalkılıç, Y. H. (2022). Yeşilırmak havzasındaki hidrolojik kuraklıkların Mann- Kendall ve Yenilikçi Şen yöntemi ile trend analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(2), 422-442. Doi:10.17714/gumusfenbil.1026893
  • Kendall, M. G. (1948). Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London, England.
  • Lehmann, E. (1975). Nonparametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Inc, California: Holden -Day.
  • Li, J., Wang, Z., Wu, X., Zscheischler, J., Guo, S., Chen, X. (2021). A standardized index for assessing sub-monthly compound dry and hot conditions with application in China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, 1587-1601. doi:10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021
  • Mann, H. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica.
  • McKee, T. B., Dosken, N. J., Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Paper presented at the Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California.
  • Mert, R., Bulut, S., Solak, K. (2008). Apa Baraj Gölü’nün (Konya) Bazı Fiziksel ve Kimyasal Özelliklerinin Araştırılması. AKÜ Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(2), 1-10.
  • Mishra, A.K., Singh, V.P., (2009). Analysis of drought severityarea- frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D06120. doi:10.1029/2008JD010986.
  • Nalbantis, I. (2008). Evaluation of a Hydrological Drought Index. Eur Water, 23.
  • Naz, F., Dars, G. H., Ansari, K., Jamro, S., Krakauer, N. Y. (2020). Drought Trends in Balochistan. Water, 12(2), 470. Retrieved from https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/2/470
  • Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought. Paper presented at the US Department of Commerce.
  • Sen, Z. (2012). Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046. doi:10.1061/ (Asce)He.1943-5584.0000556
  • Sen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127(3-4), 939-947. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x
  • Sharafati, A., Nabaei, S., Shahid, S. (2019). Spatial assessment of meteorological drought features over different climate regions in Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 40. doi:10.1002/ joc.6307
  • Sneyers, R. (1990). “On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. World Meteorological Organization, 145, World Meteorological Organization.
  • Thom, H. C. S. (1966) Some Methods of Climatological Analysis. WMO Technical Note Number 81, Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 53 pp.
  • Tuğrul, T., Dogan, S., Dursun, S. (2019). Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesindeki İllerin Kuraklık Analizi. Konya Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(4), 705-712.
  • White, D. H., Walcott, J. J. (2009). The role of seasonal indices in monitoring and assessing agricultural and other droughts: a review. Crop & Pasture Science, 60(7), 599-616. doi:10.1071/ Cp08378
  • Williams, A., Cook, E., Smerdon, J., Cook, B., Abatzoglou, J., Bolles, K., Livneh, B. (2020). Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought. Science, 368, 314-318. doi:10.1126/science. aaz9600
  • WMO (2016). World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2016: Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices (M. Svoboda and B.A. Fuchs). Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), Integrated Drought Management Tools and Guidelines Series 2. Geneva.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Türker Tuğrul 0000-0001-7547-847X

Mehmet Ali Hınıs 0000-0002-1870-3535

Project Number 2022-010
Publication Date June 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 13 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Tuğrul, T., & Hınıs, M. A. (2023). Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi. Karaelmas Fen Ve Mühendislik Dergisi, 13(1), 151-163. https://doi.org/10.7212/karaelmasfen.1203887
AMA Tuğrul T, Hınıs MA. Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi. June 2023;13(1):151-163. doi:10.7212/karaelmasfen.1203887
Chicago Tuğrul, Türker, and Mehmet Ali Hınıs. “Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik Ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi”. Karaelmas Fen Ve Mühendislik Dergisi 13, no. 1 (June 2023): 151-63. https://doi.org/10.7212/karaelmasfen.1203887.
EndNote Tuğrul T, Hınıs MA (June 1, 2023) Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi 13 1 151–163.
IEEE T. Tuğrul and M. A. Hınıs, “Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi”, Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 151–163, 2023, doi: 10.7212/karaelmasfen.1203887.
ISNAD Tuğrul, Türker - Hınıs, Mehmet Ali. “Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik Ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi”. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi 13/1 (June 2023), 151-163. https://doi.org/10.7212/karaelmasfen.1203887.
JAMA Tuğrul T, Hınıs MA. Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi. 2023;13:151–163.
MLA Tuğrul, Türker and Mehmet Ali Hınıs. “Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik Ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi”. Karaelmas Fen Ve Mühendislik Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 1, 2023, pp. 151-63, doi:10.7212/karaelmasfen.1203887.
Vancouver Tuğrul T, Hınıs MA. Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi. 2023;13(1):151-63.