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Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 8 - 16, 30.06.2021

Ezgi Güler Burcu Özcan

Abstract

References

  • [1] Prüss-Ustün, A., Wolf J., Cordolán C., Bos, R., and Neira M., 2016, Preventing Disease Through Healthy Environments: A Global Assessment of the Burden of Disease from Environmental Risks, 1st ed., World Health Organization. Geneva, Switzerland.
  • [2] Ghosh, N., Roy, A., Mandal, R., and Dutta, A., 2020, Degradation of air quality (PM10) with seasonal change and health risk assessment in metro city Kolkata, International Journal of Advancement in Life Sciences Research, Vol. 3(1), 24-31.
  • [3] Wang, Y., Wang, H., Chang, S., and Avram A., 2018, Prediction of daily PM2.5 concentration in China using partial differential equations, PLoS ONE, Vol. 13(6), 1-13.
  • [4] Chen D., Liu, X., Lang, J., Zhou, Y., Wei, L., Wang, X., and Guo, X., 2017, Estimating the contribution of regional transport to PM2.5 air pollution in a rural area on the North China Plain, Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 583, 280–291.
  • [5] Abdo, N., Khader, Y.S., Abdelrahman, M., Graboski-Bauer, A., Malkawi, M., and Al-Sharif, M., 2016, Respiratory Health Outcomes and Air Pollution in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Systematic Review, Rev. Environ. Healt, Vol. 31, 259–280.
  • [6] National Research Council (US) Committee on Indoor Pollutants, Factors That Influence Exposure to Indoor Air Pollutants, web page: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK234048/, retrieval date: 23 May 2020.
  • [7] Cujia, A., Agudelo-Castañeda, D., Pacheco-Bustos, C., and Teixeira, E.C., 2019, Forecast of PM10 Time-Series Data: A Study Case in Caribbean Cities, Atmospheric Pollution Research, Vol.10, 2053-2062.
  • [8] Rovira, J., Domingo, J.L., and Schuhmacher, M., 2020, Air quality, health impacts and burden of disease due to air pollution (PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3): Application of AirQ+ model to the Camp de Tarragona County (Catalonia, Spain), Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 703, 2-12.
  • [9] Bai, Y., Li, Y., Wang, X., Xie, J., and Li, C., 2016, Air Pollutants Concentrations Forecasting Using Back Propagation Neural Network Based on Wavelet Decomposition with Meteorological Conditions, Atmospheric Pollution Research, Vol. 7, 557–566.
  • [10] Gruszecka-Kosowska A., 2018, Assessment of the Krako´W Inhabitants’ Health Risk Caused by the Exposure to Inhalation of Outdoor Air Contaminants, Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, Vol. 32(2), 485–499.
  • [11] Ventura, L.M.B., De Oliveira Pinto, F., Soares, L.M., Luna, A.S., and Gioda, A., 2019, Forecast of Daily PM2.5 Concentrations Applying Artificial Neural Networks and Holt–Winters Models, Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, Vol. 12, 317–325.
  • [12] Turkey Union of Chambers of Engineers and Architects, Chamber of Environmental Engineers, Air Pollution Report, 2017, web page: http://cmo.org.tr/resimler/ekler/2145efce8f89f52_ek.pdf , retrieval date: 11 May 2020.
  • [13] Cyprus Environmental Protection Agency, Targets of Air Quality, web page: http://www.cevrekorumadairesi.org/air/tr-pages.php?no=76 , retrieval date: 30 May 2020.
  • [14] Diaz-Robles, L.A., Ortega, J.C., Fu, J.S., Reed, G.D., Chow, J.C., Watson, J.G., and Moncada-Herrera, J.A., 2008, A Hybrid ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Model to Forecast Particulate Matter in Urban Areas: The case of Temuco, Chile, Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 42, 8331-8340.
  • [15] Qingxin, F., Ying, L., and Nanqi, R., 2009, Application of grey prediction model to forecast the main air contaminant PM10 in Harbin City, IEEE.
  • [16] Kurt, A., and Oktay, A.B., 2010, Forecasting Air Pollutant Indicator Levels with Geographic Models 3 Days In Advance Using Neural Networks, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 37(12), 7986–7992.
  • [17] Sun, W., Zhang, H., Palazoglu, A., Singh, A., Zhang, W., and Liu, S., 2013, Prediction of 24-Hour-Average PM2.5 Concentrations Using a Hidden Markov Model with Different Emission Distributions in Northern California, Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 443, 93-103.
  • [18] Mahajan, S., Chen, L.J., and Tsai, T.C., 2017, An Empirical Study of PM2.5 Forecasting Using Neural Network, IEEE.
  • [19] Zhang, J., and Ding, W., 2017, Prediction of Air Pollutants Concentration Based on An Extreme Learning Machine: The Case of Hong Kong,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 14(2), 114. 2017.
  • [20] Dun, M., Xu, Z., Chen, Y., and, Wu, L., 2020, Short-term Air Quality Prediction Based on Fractional Grey Linear Regression and Support Vector Machine, Hindawi Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 1-13.
  • [21] Altınay, G., 2010, Aylık Elektrik Talebinin Mevsimsel Model ile Orta Dönem Öngörüsü, 2010, Enerji, Piyasa ve Düzenleme, Vol. 1(1), 1-23.
  • [22] Abbak, R., 2005, Deniz Düzeyi Gözlemlerinin En Küçük Kareler Yöntemiyle Spektral Analizi, Master of Science Thesis, Selçuk University, The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences.
  • [23] Türker, E.S., and Can, E., 1989, Bilgisayar Uygulamalı Sayısal Analiz Yöntemleri, 2nd ed., Değişim Yayınları, İstanbul, Türkiye.
  • [24] Mohanasundaram, S., Narasimhan, B., and Kumar, G.S., 2016, Transfer Function Noise Modelling of Groundwater Level Fluctuation Using Threshold Rainfall-Based Binary-Weighted Parameter Estimation Approach, Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 62(1), 36-49.
  • [25] Bruster-Flores, J.L., Ortiz-Gómez, R., Ferriño-Fierro, A.L., Guerra-Cobián, V.H., Burgos-Flores, D., and Lizárraga-Mendiola, L.G., 2019, Evaluation of Precipitation Estimates CMORPH-CRT on Regions of Mexico with Different Climates, Water, Vol.11, 1722.
  • [26] Witt, S. F., and Witt, C. A., 1992, Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism, 1st ed., Academic Press, London, England.
  • [27] Lewis, C. D., 1982, Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods, 1st ed., Butterworths Publishing, London, England.
  • [28] Şimşek, A., Beyteki̇n, İ., and Bakan, G., 2018, Cleaner Production Applications in Various Industries: Metal Industry, Environmental Research and Technology, Vol. 1(3), 51-57.
  • [29] G. İnce, 2010, Tarımdan Sanayiye Geçiş Sürecinde Trakya Alt Bölgesinde Göç : Çerkezköy Örneği, PhD Thesis, Namık Kemal University, The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences.
  • [30] Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, National Air Quality Monitoring Network, web page: https://sim.csb.gov.tr/STN/STN_Report/StationDataDownloadNew , retrieval date:01 Nov 2020.

PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ

Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 8 - 16, 30.06.2021

Ezgi Güler Burcu Özcan

Abstract

The rapid increase of the human population and industrialization rate in the globalizing world poses an important risk in terms of air pollution. Air pollution is an especially important issue for public health. Making the accurate predictions for air pollutants is an important step to take necessary measures. In this study, forecasting analysis for the future period was made by using the monthly average concentration values of Particulate Matter (PM2.5) causing air pollution in the Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ province between January 2017 and April 2020. "Winters’ Method” and “Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Method” were used as the prediction approach. Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) model performance criteria were calculated based on the predictive values and actual values obtained. Whether the methods with structurally different algorithms differ in terms of prediction success was examined. Using the prediction methods, predictions for the next 20 months for PM2.5 values were obtained. The predictive values obtained from both methods were intended to create a preliminary study value for decision makers and strategists working on air pollution.

Keywords

Air Pollution Environmental Pollution Forecasting Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Method Winters' Method

References

  • [1] Prüss-Ustün, A., Wolf J., Cordolán C., Bos, R., and Neira M., 2016, Preventing Disease Through Healthy Environments: A Global Assessment of the Burden of Disease from Environmental Risks, 1st ed., World Health Organization. Geneva, Switzerland.
  • [2] Ghosh, N., Roy, A., Mandal, R., and Dutta, A., 2020, Degradation of air quality (PM10) with seasonal change and health risk assessment in metro city Kolkata, International Journal of Advancement in Life Sciences Research, Vol. 3(1), 24-31.
  • [3] Wang, Y., Wang, H., Chang, S., and Avram A., 2018, Prediction of daily PM2.5 concentration in China using partial differential equations, PLoS ONE, Vol. 13(6), 1-13.
  • [4] Chen D., Liu, X., Lang, J., Zhou, Y., Wei, L., Wang, X., and Guo, X., 2017, Estimating the contribution of regional transport to PM2.5 air pollution in a rural area on the North China Plain, Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 583, 280–291.
  • [5] Abdo, N., Khader, Y.S., Abdelrahman, M., Graboski-Bauer, A., Malkawi, M., and Al-Sharif, M., 2016, Respiratory Health Outcomes and Air Pollution in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Systematic Review, Rev. Environ. Healt, Vol. 31, 259–280.
  • [6] National Research Council (US) Committee on Indoor Pollutants, Factors That Influence Exposure to Indoor Air Pollutants, web page: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK234048/, retrieval date: 23 May 2020.
  • [7] Cujia, A., Agudelo-Castañeda, D., Pacheco-Bustos, C., and Teixeira, E.C., 2019, Forecast of PM10 Time-Series Data: A Study Case in Caribbean Cities, Atmospheric Pollution Research, Vol.10, 2053-2062.
  • [8] Rovira, J., Domingo, J.L., and Schuhmacher, M., 2020, Air quality, health impacts and burden of disease due to air pollution (PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3): Application of AirQ+ model to the Camp de Tarragona County (Catalonia, Spain), Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 703, 2-12.
  • [9] Bai, Y., Li, Y., Wang, X., Xie, J., and Li, C., 2016, Air Pollutants Concentrations Forecasting Using Back Propagation Neural Network Based on Wavelet Decomposition with Meteorological Conditions, Atmospheric Pollution Research, Vol. 7, 557–566.
  • [10] Gruszecka-Kosowska A., 2018, Assessment of the Krako´W Inhabitants’ Health Risk Caused by the Exposure to Inhalation of Outdoor Air Contaminants, Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, Vol. 32(2), 485–499.
  • [11] Ventura, L.M.B., De Oliveira Pinto, F., Soares, L.M., Luna, A.S., and Gioda, A., 2019, Forecast of Daily PM2.5 Concentrations Applying Artificial Neural Networks and Holt–Winters Models, Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, Vol. 12, 317–325.
  • [12] Turkey Union of Chambers of Engineers and Architects, Chamber of Environmental Engineers, Air Pollution Report, 2017, web page: http://cmo.org.tr/resimler/ekler/2145efce8f89f52_ek.pdf , retrieval date: 11 May 2020.
  • [13] Cyprus Environmental Protection Agency, Targets of Air Quality, web page: http://www.cevrekorumadairesi.org/air/tr-pages.php?no=76 , retrieval date: 30 May 2020.
  • [14] Diaz-Robles, L.A., Ortega, J.C., Fu, J.S., Reed, G.D., Chow, J.C., Watson, J.G., and Moncada-Herrera, J.A., 2008, A Hybrid ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Model to Forecast Particulate Matter in Urban Areas: The case of Temuco, Chile, Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 42, 8331-8340.
  • [15] Qingxin, F., Ying, L., and Nanqi, R., 2009, Application of grey prediction model to forecast the main air contaminant PM10 in Harbin City, IEEE.
  • [16] Kurt, A., and Oktay, A.B., 2010, Forecasting Air Pollutant Indicator Levels with Geographic Models 3 Days In Advance Using Neural Networks, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 37(12), 7986–7992.
  • [17] Sun, W., Zhang, H., Palazoglu, A., Singh, A., Zhang, W., and Liu, S., 2013, Prediction of 24-Hour-Average PM2.5 Concentrations Using a Hidden Markov Model with Different Emission Distributions in Northern California, Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 443, 93-103.
  • [18] Mahajan, S., Chen, L.J., and Tsai, T.C., 2017, An Empirical Study of PM2.5 Forecasting Using Neural Network, IEEE.
  • [19] Zhang, J., and Ding, W., 2017, Prediction of Air Pollutants Concentration Based on An Extreme Learning Machine: The Case of Hong Kong,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 14(2), 114. 2017.
  • [20] Dun, M., Xu, Z., Chen, Y., and, Wu, L., 2020, Short-term Air Quality Prediction Based on Fractional Grey Linear Regression and Support Vector Machine, Hindawi Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 1-13.
  • [21] Altınay, G., 2010, Aylık Elektrik Talebinin Mevsimsel Model ile Orta Dönem Öngörüsü, 2010, Enerji, Piyasa ve Düzenleme, Vol. 1(1), 1-23.
  • [22] Abbak, R., 2005, Deniz Düzeyi Gözlemlerinin En Küçük Kareler Yöntemiyle Spektral Analizi, Master of Science Thesis, Selçuk University, The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences.
  • [23] Türker, E.S., and Can, E., 1989, Bilgisayar Uygulamalı Sayısal Analiz Yöntemleri, 2nd ed., Değişim Yayınları, İstanbul, Türkiye.
  • [24] Mohanasundaram, S., Narasimhan, B., and Kumar, G.S., 2016, Transfer Function Noise Modelling of Groundwater Level Fluctuation Using Threshold Rainfall-Based Binary-Weighted Parameter Estimation Approach, Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 62(1), 36-49.
  • [25] Bruster-Flores, J.L., Ortiz-Gómez, R., Ferriño-Fierro, A.L., Guerra-Cobián, V.H., Burgos-Flores, D., and Lizárraga-Mendiola, L.G., 2019, Evaluation of Precipitation Estimates CMORPH-CRT on Regions of Mexico with Different Climates, Water, Vol.11, 1722.
  • [26] Witt, S. F., and Witt, C. A., 1992, Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism, 1st ed., Academic Press, London, England.
  • [27] Lewis, C. D., 1982, Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods, 1st ed., Butterworths Publishing, London, England.
  • [28] Şimşek, A., Beyteki̇n, İ., and Bakan, G., 2018, Cleaner Production Applications in Various Industries: Metal Industry, Environmental Research and Technology, Vol. 1(3), 51-57.
  • [29] G. İnce, 2010, Tarımdan Sanayiye Geçiş Sürecinde Trakya Alt Bölgesinde Göç : Çerkezköy Örneği, PhD Thesis, Namık Kemal University, The Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences.
  • [30] Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, National Air Quality Monitoring Network, web page: https://sim.csb.gov.tr/STN/STN_Report/StationDataDownloadNew , retrieval date:01 Nov 2020.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Environmental Sciences
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ezgi Güler 0000-0001-8789-8244

Burcu Özcan 0000-0003-0820-4238

Publication Date June 30, 2021
Submission Date January 19, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Güler, E., & Özcan, B. (2021). PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ. International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling, 4(1), 8-16.
AMA Güler E, Özcan B. PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ. Int. j. environ. pollut. environ. model. June 2021;4(1):8-16.
Chicago Güler, Ezgi, and Burcu Özcan. “PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis With Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy District of Tekirdağ”. International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling 4, no. 1 (June 2021): 8-16.
EndNote Güler E, Özcan B (June 1, 2021) PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ. International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling 4 1 8–16.
IEEE E. Güler and B. Özcan, “PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ”, Int. j. environ. pollut. environ. model., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 8–16, 2021.
ISNAD Güler, Ezgi - Özcan, Burcu. “PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis With Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy District of Tekirdağ”. International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling 4/1 (June 2021), 8-16.
JAMA Güler E, Özcan B. PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ. Int. j. environ. pollut. environ. model. 2021;4:8–16.
MLA Güler, Ezgi and Burcu Özcan. “PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis With Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy District of Tekirdağ”. International Journal of Environmental Pollution and Environmental Modelling, vol. 4, no. 1, 2021, pp. 8-16.
Vancouver Güler E, Özcan B. PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Winters’ and Fourier Analysis with Least Squares Methods in Çerkezköy district of Tekirdağ. Int. j. environ. pollut. environ. model. 2021;4(1):8-16.
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