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Observed Variations and Trends in Number of Tropical Nights in Turkey

Year 2017, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 95 - 106, 26.12.2017

Abstract

This study has examined observed variations and trends in
annual number of the tropical nights recorded at the 92 climatological and
meteorological stations of Turkey during the 1950-2016 periods. Tropical nights
are defined as the number of days with a daily Tmin greater than 20°C. Mann-Kendall
rank correlation and linear regression analyses revealed that numbers of the
tropical nights has tended to increase statistically at majority of the
stations (87 of 92). When year to year variations are considered, it is seen
that annual numbers of the tropical nights were mostly below long-term average
of 1950-1984 period with a decreasing trend. The minimum annual numbers of the
tropical nights during this period occurred in the years of 1976, 1968 and
1984. On the other hand, annual numbers of the tropical nights indicated
persistent increasing trend with marked positive anomalies after the year of
1985, and reached the maximum numbers in the years of 2010, 2012 and 2016.
Observed increasing trends become apparent at the coastal stations with already
higher numbers of the tropical nights, whereas the trends decreased at the
continental stations of the Central and Eastern Anatolia regions characterised
with already lower numbers and higher variability. These results have shown
that the night-time air temperatures tended to increase rapidly beginning since
the mid-1980s, and revealed also that the night-time minimum air temperature
regime or statistical distribution in Turkey changed evidently.       

References

  • Chen, Y., Miller, J.R., Francis J.A., Russell, G.L. 2011. Projected regime shift in Arctic cloud and water vapor feedbacks, Environmental Research Letters, 6, 044007, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044007.
  • Christidis, N., Stott P. A., Brown S., Hegerl, G., Caesar, J. 2005 Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20716, doi:10.1029/2005GL023885.
  • Christidis, N., Stott, P. A. 2016. Attribution analyses of temperature extremes using a set of 16 indices, Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 24–35.
  • Coper, M.J., Garreaud, R. D. 2015. Characterization of the 1970s climate shift in South America, International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2164–2179.
  • Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., vd. 2013. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 2098–2118, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150.
  • Easterling, D.R., Gerald, A.M., Camille, P., vd. 2000. Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts, Science, 289, 2068-2074.
  • Erlat, E., Türkeş, M. 2012. Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950–2010, International Journal of Climatology, 32(12), 1889–1898. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2403
  • Erlat, E., Türkeş, M. 2013. Observed changes and trends in numbers of summer and tropical days, and the 2010 hot summer in Turkey, International Journal of Climatology 33, 1898–1908.
  • Gordon, N. D., Jonko, A. K., Forster, P. M., Shell, K. M. 2013. An observationally based constraint on the water-vapor feedback, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 12435–12443, doi:10.1002/2013JD020184.
  • Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. 2012. Perception of climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109, E2415–23.
  • Hare, S.R., Mantua, N. J. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, Progress in Oceanography, 47, 103–145.
  • IPCC. 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., et al., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.
  • Kadıoğlu, M., Satılmış, S., Özgüler, H. 1994. Büyük su yapılarının çevre iklimine etkisi, Su ve Toprak Kaynaklarının Geliştirilmesi Konferansı, Ankara, Türkiye, 12-14 Nisan 1994.
  • Katz, R.W., Brown, B.G. 1992. Extreme Events in a Changing Climate: Variability Is More Important than Averages. Climate Change, 21, 289-302.
  • Meehl, G.A., Teng, H. 2014. CMIP5 multi-model initialized decadal hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early-2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016-2035, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL059256.
  • Meehl, G.A., Hu, A., Santer, B.D., Xie, S. P. 2016. Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends, Nature Climate Change, 6 (11), 1005–1008, DOI:10.1038/nclimate3107.
  • Morak, S., Hegerl, G. C., Kenyon, J. 2011. Detectable regional changes in the number of warm nights, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L17703, doi:10.1029/2011GL048531.
  • Morak, S., Hegerl, G. C., Christidis, N. 2013. Detectable Changes in the Frequency of Temperature Extremes, Journal of Climate, 26 (5), 1561-1574. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00678.1
  • Peterson, T.C., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A., Plummer, N. 2001. Report on the Activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Reporters 1998-2001. WMO, Rep. WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071, Geneve, Switzerland, 143p.
  • Petralli, M., Massetti, L., Orlandini, S. 2011. Five years of thermal intra-urban monitoring in Florence (Italy) and application of climatological indices, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104 (3-4), 349-356.
  • Perkins, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Nairn, J.R. 2012. Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophysical Research Letters 39, L20714, doi:10.1029/2012GL053361.
  • Rangwala, I., Miller, J., Xu, M. 2009. Warming in the Tibetan Plateau: possible influences of the changes in surface water vapor, Geophysical Research Letters, 36(6), L06703.
  • Reid, P.C., Hari, R. E., Beaugrand, G., vd. 2016. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift, Global Change Biology 22 (2), 682–703, doi: 10.1111/gcb.13106
  • Seneviratne, S.I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D.,vd. 2012. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, NY, pp. 109-230.
  • Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Mueller, B., Alexander, L. V. 2014. No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes, Nature Climate Change 4161-4163, doi:10.1038/nclimate2145.
  • Shiogama, H., Christidis, N., Caesar, J., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Emori, S. 2006. Detection of greenhouse gas and aerosol influences in changes in temperature extremes, SOLA, 2, 152–155, doi:10.2151/sola.2006-039.
  • Sneyers, R. 1990 On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. WMO Technical Note 43, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
  • Stott, P. A. 2003. Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1728, doi:10.1029/2003GL017324.
  • Şensoy, S., Türkoğlu, N., Akçakaya, A., Ekici, M., Demircan, M., Ulupınar, Y., Atay, H., Tüvan, A., Demirbaş, H. 2013. Trends in Turkey climate indices from 1960 to 2010. 6. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu İTÜ, İstanbul (s. 24-26).
  • Türkeş, M., Sümer, U.M., Demir, İ. 2002. Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999, International Journal of Climatology, 22, 947-977.
  • Türkeş, M. 2013. Klimatolojik ve Hidrolojik Verilerin Türdeşlik ve İklimsel Değişkenlik Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Ders ve Kurs Notları (yayımlanmamış), Çanakkale.
  • Ünal, Y.S., Tan, E., Menteş, S.S. 2013. Summer heat waves over western Turkey between 1965 and 2006, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112 (1-2), 339-350. http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml

TÜRKİYE’DE TROPİKAL GECE SAYILARINDA GÖZLENEN DEĞİŞMELER VE EĞİLİMLER

Year 2017, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 95 - 106, 26.12.2017

Abstract

Çalışmada, Türkiye’deki 92
klimatoloji ve meteoroloji istasyonunda 1950–2016 döneminde kaydedilen yıllık
tropikal gece sayılarında gözlenen değişmeler ve eğilimler incelenmiştir.
Tropikal gece, 2 metrede gözlenen minimum hava sıcaklıklarının (Tmin) 20°C’den
büyük olduğu gece olarak tanımlanmakta ve günlük Tmin’lerin 20°C’den yüksek
olduğu günler sayısı olarak adlandırılan basit bir indis aracılığıyla yıllık
olarak incelenmektedir. Mann-Kendall sıra ilişki katsayısı ve basit doğrusal
regresyon analizleri, tropikal gece sayılarının istasyonların çoğunluğunda
(92’nin 87’sinde) istatistiksel olarak anlamlı artış eğilimi gösterdiğini
ortaya koymuştur. Yıllar arası değişmeler göz önüne alındığında, değerlerin
1950-1984 döneminde uzun dönem ortalamasının genellikle altında kaldığı ve
azalma eğilimi gösterdiği görülür. Türkiye’de bu dönem içinde en düşük yıllık
tropikal gün sayılarına 1976, 1968 ve 1984 yıllarında rastlanmaktadır. Yıllık
tropikal gün sayıları 1985 yılından sonra sürekli pozitif anomali göstererek
kuvvetli bir artış eğilimi sergilemiş ve en yüksek sayılara 2010, 2012 ve 2016
yıllarında ulaşmıştır. Gözlenen artış eğilimi tropik gece sayılarının zaten
yüksek olduğu kıyı istasyonlarında belirginleşirken, karasallığın arttığı,
tropik gece sayılarının düşük ve daha değişken olduğu İç ve Doğu Anadolu
istasyonlarında zayıflamaktadır. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye’de gece sıcaklıklarının
1980’li yılların ortalarından itibaren hızla yükseldiğini ve minimum sıcaklık
rejiminin ya da istatistiksel dağılımının dikkat çekici bir biçimde değiştiğini
göstermektedir.  

References

  • Chen, Y., Miller, J.R., Francis J.A., Russell, G.L. 2011. Projected regime shift in Arctic cloud and water vapor feedbacks, Environmental Research Letters, 6, 044007, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044007.
  • Christidis, N., Stott P. A., Brown S., Hegerl, G., Caesar, J. 2005 Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20716, doi:10.1029/2005GL023885.
  • Christidis, N., Stott, P. A. 2016. Attribution analyses of temperature extremes using a set of 16 indices, Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 24–35.
  • Coper, M.J., Garreaud, R. D. 2015. Characterization of the 1970s climate shift in South America, International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2164–2179.
  • Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., vd. 2013. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 2098–2118, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150.
  • Easterling, D.R., Gerald, A.M., Camille, P., vd. 2000. Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts, Science, 289, 2068-2074.
  • Erlat, E., Türkeş, M. 2012. Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950–2010, International Journal of Climatology, 32(12), 1889–1898. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2403
  • Erlat, E., Türkeş, M. 2013. Observed changes and trends in numbers of summer and tropical days, and the 2010 hot summer in Turkey, International Journal of Climatology 33, 1898–1908.
  • Gordon, N. D., Jonko, A. K., Forster, P. M., Shell, K. M. 2013. An observationally based constraint on the water-vapor feedback, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 12435–12443, doi:10.1002/2013JD020184.
  • Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. 2012. Perception of climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109, E2415–23.
  • Hare, S.R., Mantua, N. J. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, Progress in Oceanography, 47, 103–145.
  • IPCC. 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., et al., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.
  • Kadıoğlu, M., Satılmış, S., Özgüler, H. 1994. Büyük su yapılarının çevre iklimine etkisi, Su ve Toprak Kaynaklarının Geliştirilmesi Konferansı, Ankara, Türkiye, 12-14 Nisan 1994.
  • Katz, R.W., Brown, B.G. 1992. Extreme Events in a Changing Climate: Variability Is More Important than Averages. Climate Change, 21, 289-302.
  • Meehl, G.A., Teng, H. 2014. CMIP5 multi-model initialized decadal hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early-2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016-2035, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL059256.
  • Meehl, G.A., Hu, A., Santer, B.D., Xie, S. P. 2016. Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends, Nature Climate Change, 6 (11), 1005–1008, DOI:10.1038/nclimate3107.
  • Morak, S., Hegerl, G. C., Kenyon, J. 2011. Detectable regional changes in the number of warm nights, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L17703, doi:10.1029/2011GL048531.
  • Morak, S., Hegerl, G. C., Christidis, N. 2013. Detectable Changes in the Frequency of Temperature Extremes, Journal of Climate, 26 (5), 1561-1574. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00678.1
  • Peterson, T.C., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A., Plummer, N. 2001. Report on the Activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Reporters 1998-2001. WMO, Rep. WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071, Geneve, Switzerland, 143p.
  • Petralli, M., Massetti, L., Orlandini, S. 2011. Five years of thermal intra-urban monitoring in Florence (Italy) and application of climatological indices, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104 (3-4), 349-356.
  • Perkins, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Nairn, J.R. 2012. Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophysical Research Letters 39, L20714, doi:10.1029/2012GL053361.
  • Rangwala, I., Miller, J., Xu, M. 2009. Warming in the Tibetan Plateau: possible influences of the changes in surface water vapor, Geophysical Research Letters, 36(6), L06703.
  • Reid, P.C., Hari, R. E., Beaugrand, G., vd. 2016. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift, Global Change Biology 22 (2), 682–703, doi: 10.1111/gcb.13106
  • Seneviratne, S.I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D.,vd. 2012. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, NY, pp. 109-230.
  • Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Mueller, B., Alexander, L. V. 2014. No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes, Nature Climate Change 4161-4163, doi:10.1038/nclimate2145.
  • Shiogama, H., Christidis, N., Caesar, J., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Emori, S. 2006. Detection of greenhouse gas and aerosol influences in changes in temperature extremes, SOLA, 2, 152–155, doi:10.2151/sola.2006-039.
  • Sneyers, R. 1990 On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. WMO Technical Note 43, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
  • Stott, P. A. 2003. Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1728, doi:10.1029/2003GL017324.
  • Şensoy, S., Türkoğlu, N., Akçakaya, A., Ekici, M., Demircan, M., Ulupınar, Y., Atay, H., Tüvan, A., Demirbaş, H. 2013. Trends in Turkey climate indices from 1960 to 2010. 6. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu İTÜ, İstanbul (s. 24-26).
  • Türkeş, M., Sümer, U.M., Demir, İ. 2002. Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999, International Journal of Climatology, 22, 947-977.
  • Türkeş, M. 2013. Klimatolojik ve Hidrolojik Verilerin Türdeşlik ve İklimsel Değişkenlik Analizi. Yüksek Lisans Ders ve Kurs Notları (yayımlanmamış), Çanakkale.
  • Ünal, Y.S., Tan, E., Menteş, S.S. 2013. Summer heat waves over western Turkey between 1965 and 2006, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112 (1-2), 339-350. http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ecmel Erlat

Murat Türkeş

Publication Date December 26, 2017
Submission Date September 27, 2017
Acceptance Date December 4, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 26 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Erlat, E., & Türkeş, M. (2017). TÜRKİYE’DE TROPİKAL GECE SAYILARINDA GÖZLENEN DEĞİŞMELER VE EĞİLİMLER. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 26(2), 95-106.