Year 2019, Volume 3 , Issue 2, Pages 75 - 81 2019-12-30

Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması
The Grey Forecasting Modelling and Its Application

Halis BİLGİL [1] , Zafer OZTURK [2] , Emine OZGUL [3]


Gri teori, zayıf bilgi veya bilgilerin eksik olduğu sistemlerle ilgilenen etkili bir teoridir. Bu teoride az sayıda veriden faydalanarak gelecek zamanlar için etkin ve oldukça yaklaşık tahminler oluşturulabilmektedir. Gri modelleme yöntemi, gri sistemler teorisinin bir alt dalı olup, modelleme işlemi ilgili fark denklemleri ve diferansiyel denklemler kullanılarak yapılır. En küçük kareler yaklaşımı sonuçların uygunluğu üzerinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Kesinliği ve kullanışlılığı ile gri tahmin modellerinin temelini oluşturan GM(1,1) modelleme yöntemi kullanılarak, Aksaray ilinden ileriki yıllarda elde edilecek vergi gelirlerinin tahmini yapılmıştır. Bu tahminler başta yerel yönetimler olmak üzere ekonomik politikalar için oldukça faydalıdır.

Grey theory is an effective theory that deals with systems which have imperfect data or weak information. Effective and very accurate estimates can be created for the future by utilizing a small number of data in this theory. The grey modeling method is a sub-branch of the grey systems theory and the modeling process is done by using the related differential equations. The least squares approach plays an important role on accuracy of the results. Using the GM(1,1) modeling method, which is the basis of grey prediction models with its accuracy and usefulness, the tax income to be obtained in the following years are estimated. These estimates are very useful for economic policies, especially for local governments.
  • [1] J.L.Deng, Control problem of grey system, Syst. Control Lett. 5 (1982) 288-294.
  • [2] Yong-Huang Lin, Pin-Chan Lee, Ta-Peng Chang, Adaptive and high-precision grey forecasting model, Expert Syst. Appl. 36 (2009) 9658-9662.
  • [3] S.F. Liu, Y.G. Dang, Z.G. Fang, Grey System Theory and its Application, third ed., Science Press, Beijing, 2004 (Chapter 5).
  • [4] W. Zhou, J.-M. He, Generalized gm (1,1) model and its application in forecasting of fuel production, Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (9) (2013) 6234-6243
  • [5] S. Javed, S. Liu, Predicting the research output/growth of selected countries: application of even gm(1,1) and ndgm models, Scientometrics. 115 (1) (2018) 395-413.
  • [6] S.-L. Ou, Forecasting agricultural output with an improved grey forecasting model based on the genetic algorithml, Comput. Electron. Agric. 85 (85) 80 (2012) 33-39.
  • [7] B. Zeng, Y. Tan, H. Xu, J. Quan, L. Wang, X. Zhou, Forecasting the electricity consumption of commercial sector in Hong Kong using a novel grey dynamic prediction model, J. Grey Syst. 30 (1) (2018) 157-172.
  • [8] S. Ene, N. Ozturk, Grey modelling based forecasting system for return How of end-of-life vehicles, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 117 (2018) 155-166.
  • [9] X. Ma, Z. Liu, Application of a novel time-delayed polynomial grey model to predict the natural gas consumption in china, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. 324 (2017) 17-24.
  • [10] J.Cui, S.F.Liu, B.Zeng, N.M. Xie, A novel grey forecasting model and its optimization, Applied Mathematical Modelling 37 (2013) 4399–4406
  • [11] X. Ma, Z. Liu, Y. Wang, Application of a novel nonlinear multivariate grey bernoulli model to predict the tourist income of china, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 347 (2019) 84-94.
  • [12] Z. X. Wang, Q. Li, L. L. Pei, A seasonal gm(1,1) model for forecasting the electricity consumption of the primary economic sectors, Energy 154 (2018) 522-534.
  • [13] D. Akay, M. Atak, Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of turkey, Energy 32 (9) (2007) 1670-1675.
  • [14] http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist
Primary Language tr
Subjects Basic Sciences
Published Date December 2019
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Author: Halis BİLGİL (Primary Author)
Institution: AKSARAY UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Author: Zafer OZTURK
Institution: AKSARAY UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Author: Emine OZGUL
Institution: AKSARAY UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Dates

Application Date : April 6, 2019
Acceptance Date : November 4, 2019
Publication Date : December 30, 2019

Bibtex @research article { asujse550219, journal = {Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering}, issn = {}, eissn = {2587-1277}, address = {Aksaray Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Merkez Kampüs, 68100 Aksaray}, publisher = {Aksaray University}, year = {2019}, volume = {3}, pages = {75 - 81}, doi = {10.29002/asujse.550219}, title = {Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması}, key = {cite}, author = {BİLGİL, Halis and OZTURK, Zafer and OZGUL, Emine} }
APA BİLGİL, H , OZTURK, Z , OZGUL, E . (2019). Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması. Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering , 3 (2) , 75-81 . DOI: 10.29002/asujse.550219
MLA BİLGİL, H , OZTURK, Z , OZGUL, E . "Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması". Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering 3 (2019 ): 75-81 <http://asujse.aksaray.edu.tr/en/issue/46567/550219>
Chicago BİLGİL, H , OZTURK, Z , OZGUL, E . "Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması". Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering 3 (2019 ): 75-81
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması AU - Halis BİLGİL , Zafer OZTURK , Emine OZGUL Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.29002/asujse.550219 DO - 10.29002/asujse.550219 T2 - Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 75 EP - 81 VL - 3 IS - 2 SN - -2587-1277 M3 - doi: 10.29002/asujse.550219 UR - https://doi.org/10.29002/asujse.550219 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması %A Halis BİLGİL , Zafer OZTURK , Emine OZGUL %T Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması %D 2019 %J Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering %P -2587-1277 %V 3 %N 2 %R doi: 10.29002/asujse.550219 %U 10.29002/asujse.550219
ISNAD BİLGİL, Halis , OZTURK, Zafer , OZGUL, Emine . "Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması". Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering 3 / 2 (December 2020): 75-81 . https://doi.org/10.29002/asujse.550219
AMA BİLGİL H , OZTURK Z , OZGUL E . Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması. Aksaray J. Sci. Eng.. 2019; 3(2): 75-81.
Vancouver BİLGİL H , OZTURK Z , OZGUL E . Gri Tahmin Modeli ve Uygulaması. Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering. 2019; 3(2): 81-75.